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Think Sherrod Brown should run for president? You might like this 2020 poll. – cleveland.com

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- Hirdetés -

CLEVELAND, Ohio – Those who want Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown to run against Republican President Donald Trump in 2020 will be stoked at the first publicly available 2020 poll in Ohio.

- Hirdetés -

A new poll from Public Policy Polling, a firm that does work for Democrats and liberal groups, shows Brown besting Trump in Ohio in a head-to-head matchup. Three other Democratic candidates were also surveyed, with two of them winning.

Cleveland.com was not able to determine who paid for the poll, but Public Policy Polling confirmed its authenticity. They surveyed 648 registered voters in Ohio using automated telephone interviews. The margin of error is plus-or-minus 3.9 percentage points.

As a predictor for the eventual outcome of the 2020 election, the poll is mostly useless. It is way too early to make any concrete observations about a single poll more than a year before any primary votes are cast. None of the major candidates have even declared their candidacy.

But it does suggest a Democrat – particularly Brown – could potentially be competitive in Ohio in a presidential race.

In a head-to-head matchup, Brown bested Trump 48 percent to 42 percent, with 10 percent undecided. Brown also had an 8-percentage point net favorable rating compared to respondents 6-percentage point net unfavorable opinion of the president.

Read more: So If Sherrod Brown becomes president, who would be Ohio’s next senator? A way-too-early list of candidates.

Three other Democrats were also tested against Trump in the survey. Former Vice President Joe Biden – who made numerous campaign visits to the state in 2018 – bested Trump 48 percent to 44 percent.

Sen. Bernie Sanders, an independent from Vermont who finished second in the Democratic primary in 2016, essentially tied Trump, with Sanders holding a narrow 47 percent to 46 percent lead.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a Democrat from Massachusetts and frequent target of attacks from both Trump and Republicans, fared worse. Trump held a 6-percentage point advantage over Warren, with 49 percent saying they supported Trump and 43 percent backing Warren.

Ohio’s status as a swing state has been a matter of contention among Democrats following the 2018 midterms. Republicans dominated the statewide ticket, with Brown being the sole exception in the partisan races.

“Some of this talk about Ohio, it sort of unmoors Ohio from the national conversation,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics and an Ohio native. “You can’t really do that. If Trump loses nationally by five points or something, he may very well lose Ohio. If the election is razor-thin again, you expect Trump to probably take Ohio.”

That somebody was willing to spend money on polling Democratic candidates in Ohio is interesting in itself. Cleveland.com confirmed that it did not come from the Ohio Democratic Party or Brown, leaving a plethora of possibilities for why someone would want to poll the state.

It could be an attempt to gauge Brown’s chances at running in 2020. Or it could be an effort to show Ohio is still winnable by Democrats.

Ohio’s competitiveness is crucial to how the 2020 election will shake out. Trump performed well throughout the Midwest, particularly in Ohio, but also in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Those three states share many similarities with Ohio, but are more Democratic in their voting trends.

Kondik said a Democrat running for president would be mistaken to write off the state before the election begins in full swing.

“I can see why Ohio might seem like a more daunting state for Democrats these days than usual. But if a Democrat wins Ohio, the election is over,” he said. “That should be part of the calculus as well here.”

Read the poll:

PPP Ohio 2020 Poll by on Scribd

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